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Os Marialvas vs Oliveira Hospital Prediction— Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

Group C · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Os Marialvas

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Oliveira Hospital

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-110.9%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.3%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.0%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 31.3% 3.20 +35.4%

Draw 31.4% 33.3% 3.00 -5.8%

Away win 26.3% 46.5% 2.15 -26.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.0% 2.38 +1.6%

Over 3.5 20.6% 23.1% 4.33 -6.5%

BTTS 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 29.9% 3.34 +8.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 40.3% 2.48 -21.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Os Marialvas1.2

Oliveira Hospital1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OS MARIALVAS · PPG 1.38

OLIVEIRA HOSPITAL · PPG 1.68

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Os Marialvas (H) 42.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +35.4%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.8%

Oliveira Hospital (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Os Marialvas face Oliveira Hospital in Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Os Marialvas a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Oliveira Hospital 26%, so Os Marialvas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Os Marialvas and 1.0 for Oliveira Hospital (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Os Marialvas are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.68 for Oliveira Hospital. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 1-2.