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Malvern vs Kingston City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Malvern

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Kingston City

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.5%1-14.1%1-22.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.0%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.9%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-116.1%4+-29.5%4+-33.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% — — —

Draw 15.5% — — —

Away win 19.2% — — —

Over 2.5 75.8% — — —

Over 3.5 55.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 1–1 4.1%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malvern3.4

Kingston City1.2

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MALVERN · PPG 2.00

KINGSTON CITY · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Malvern (H) 65.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kingston City (A) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Malvern face Kingston City in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malvern a 65% chance, the draw 16% and Kingston City 19%, so Malvern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Malvern and 1.2 for Kingston City (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malvern are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.91 for Kingston City. This match finished 1-3.

Malvern vs Kingston City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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