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Werribee City vs Springvale Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 05:00

Werribee City

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Springvale

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.1%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.8%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.6%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 62.6% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 48.8% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werribee City1.8

Springvale1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WERRIBEE CITY · PPG 1.08

SPRINGVALE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Werribee City (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Springvale (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Werribee City face Springvale in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werribee City a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Springvale 28%, so Werribee City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Werribee City and 1.3 for Springvale (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werribee City are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.17 for Springvale. This match finished 1-3.

Werribee City vs Springvale Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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