Today / Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 / Essendon Royals SC vs Keilor Park

Essendon Royals SC vs Keilor Park Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:30

Essendon Royals SC

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Keilor Park

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.6%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.0%1-16.7%1-24.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-19.4%4+-26.3%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 47.6% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Essendon Royals SC2.6

Keilor Park1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESSENDON ROYALS SC · PPG 2.25

KEILOR PARK · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Essendon Royals SC (H) 57.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Keilor Park (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Essendon Royals SC face Keilor Park in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Essendon Royals SC a 57% chance, the draw 20% and Keilor Park 22%, so Essendon Royals SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Essendon Royals SC and 1.3 for Keilor Park (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Essendon Royals SC are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Keilor Park. This match finished 1-4.

Essendon Royals SC vs Keilor Park Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 Predictions