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Grêmio Anápolis vs Tupy FC Prediction— Brazil - Goiano - 2

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 22:00

Grêmio Anápolis

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tupy FC

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-110.8%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.7%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.9% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 31.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grêmio Anápolis1.2

Tupy FC0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRÊMIO ANÁPOLIS · PPG 1.42

TUPY FC · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grêmio Anápolis (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tupy FC (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Grêmio Anápolis face Tupy FC in Brazil - Goiano - 2 on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grêmio Anápolis a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Tupy FC 22%, so Grêmio Anápolis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Grêmio Anápolis and 0.7 for Tupy FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grêmio Anápolis are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.76 for Tupy FC.

Grêmio Anápolis vs Tupy FC Prediction— Brazil - Goiano - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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