Today / Brazil - Goiano - 2 / Rio Verde vs Grêmio Anápolis

Rio Verde vs Grêmio Anápolis Prediction— Brazil - Goiano - 2

Regular Season - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:00

Rio Verde

PPG 2.19 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grêmio Anápolis

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-15.2%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.6%1-18.5%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-16.9%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.5%3-13.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 16.2% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 44.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.5%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.4 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 2–0 17.6%

#3 0–0 13.3%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rio Verde1.6

Grêmio Anápolis0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RIO VERDE · PPG 2.19

GRÊMIO ANÁPOLIS · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rio Verde (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grêmio Anápolis (A) 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rio Verde face Grêmio Anápolis in Brazil - Goiano - 2 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rio Verde a 57% chance, the draw 27% and Grêmio Anápolis 16%, so Rio Verde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rio Verde and 0.4 for Grêmio Anápolis (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rio Verde are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 0.81 for Grêmio Anápolis.