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Carina Gubin vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Carina Gubin

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Miedź Legnica II

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.4%0-24.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.5%1-110.7%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.0%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.5%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 41.7% 2.40 +10.6%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

Away win 29.4% 38.5% 2.60 -14.1%

Over 2.5 61.6% 64.1% 1.56 -3.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.2% 2.37 -6.6%

BTTS 62.1% 67.1% 1.49 -7.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carina Gubin1.7

Miedź Legnica II1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CARINA GUBIN · PPG 1.30

MIEDŹ LEGNICA II · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carina Gubin (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +10.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.8%

Miedź Legnica II (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carina Gubin face Miedź Legnica II in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carina Gubin a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Miedź Legnica II 29%, so Carina Gubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carina Gubin and 1.4 for Miedź Legnica II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carina Gubin are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.25 for Miedź Legnica II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Carina Gubin vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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