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CSF Bălți vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Regular Season - 5 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 17:00

CSF Bălți

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dacia-Buiucani

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.3%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.2%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.4%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 25.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSF Bălți1.9

Dacia-Buiucani0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CSF BĂLȚI · PPG 2.00

DACIA-BUIUCANI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSF Bălți (H) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dacia-Buiucani (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CSF Bălți face Dacia-Buiucani in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSF Bălți a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Dacia-Buiucani 20%, so CSF Bălți are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for CSF Bălți and 0.9 for Dacia-Buiucani (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSF Bălți are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Dacia-Buiucani.