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Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flora II

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.4% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.9%0-23.0%0-33.1%0-4+5.2%1 1-01.2%1-13.8%1-25.9%1-36.1%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.2%2-13.8%2-25.9%2-36.1%2-4+10.1%3 3-00.8%3-12.5%3-23.9%3-34.0%3-4+6.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-12.0%4+-23.0%4+-33.1%4+-4+5.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 31.7% 3.15 -4.8%

Draw 17.3% 25.3% 3.95 -19.0%

Away win 53.4% 56.5% 1.77 -5.5%

Over 2.5 75.4% 88.5% 1.13 -14.8%

Over 3.5 53.4% 70.9% 1.41 -24.7%

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% 61.3% 1.63 -9.2%

Away O1.5 68.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob69.5%

A 53% / xG 2.0-3.1 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.1%

#2 2–3 6.1%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 1–4 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme Kalju II2.0

Flora II3.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 1.20

FLORA II · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.11 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme Kalju II (H) 29.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.8%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -19.0%

Flora II (A) 53.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme Kalju II face Flora II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme Kalju II a 29% chance, the draw 17% and Flora II 53%, so Flora II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nõmme Kalju II and 3.1 for Flora II (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme Kalju II are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Flora II.