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San Antonio vs Cumbayá Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 20:30

San Antonio

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cumbayá

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-19.6%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.5%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-18.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 43.4% — — —

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 39.2% — — —

Away O1.5 20.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Antonio1.3

Cumbayá0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.75

CUMBAYÁ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

San Antonio (H) 48.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cumbayá (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Antonio face Cumbayá in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Antonio a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Cumbayá 23%, so San Antonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Antonio and 0.7 for Cumbayá (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Antonio are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Cumbayá.