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Richards Bay vs Mamelodi S. Prediction— South-Africa - Diski Challenge

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 08:00

Richards Bay

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-119.2%0-211.3%0-34.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.2%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.3%2-13.9%2-22.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.7%3-10.8%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% — — —

Draw 31.7% — — —

Away win 40.3% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 11.0% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.3%

A 40% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 0–1 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2✓ 11.3%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Richards Bay0.6

Mamelodi S.1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RICHARDS BAY · PPG 1.67

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.08)

Win probability 1X2

Richards Bay (H) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mamelodi S. (A) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Richards Bay face Mamelodi S. in South-Africa - Diski Challenge on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Richards Bay a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Mamelodi S. 40%, so Mamelodi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Richards Bay and 1.2 for Mamelodi S. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Richards Bay are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.08 for Mamelodi S.. This match finished 0-2.