Today / Slovenia - 3. SNL - East / Videm vs Dobrovce

Videm vs Dobrovce Prediction— Slovenia - 3. SNL - East

East · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:30

Videm

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Dobrovce

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

xG gap +1.84 for Home, form 2.36 vs 0.53 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.1%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.8%1-16.0%1-23.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-18.6%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-111.9%4+-26.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 75.2% 1.33 -10.2%

Draw 16.2% 20.0% 5.00 -11.4%

Away win 16.3% 16.7% 6.00 -1.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 49.4% 53.5% 1.87 -7.6%

BTTS 61.5% 62.9% 1.59 -2.2%

Home O1.5 77.9% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% 29.2% 3.42 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 68% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Videm2.9

Dobrovce1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIDEM · PPG 2.36

DOBROVCE · PPG 0.53

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.84 for Home, form 2.36 vs 0.53 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Videm (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -10.2%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.4%

Dobrovce (A) 16.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Videm face Dobrovce in Slovenia - 3. SNL - East on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Videm a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Dobrovce 16%, so Videm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Videm and 1.0 for Dobrovce (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Videm are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.53 for Dobrovce. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.8%.