Today / Mexico - Primera Premier / Celaya vs Tapachula

Celaya vs Tapachula Prediction— Mexico - Primera Premier

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:00

Celaya

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Tapachula

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.0%0-27.7%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.1%2-17.2%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 56.5% 1.77 -34.7%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 36.5% 24.2% 4.14 +51.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

Home O1.5 31.2% 60.6% 1.65 -48.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.0% 2.70 +13.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.2%

H 37% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celaya1.1

Tapachula1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CELAYA · PPG 1.50

TAPACHULA · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Celaya (H) 36.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -34.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Tapachula (A) 36.5%

ODDS 4.14 · IMPLIED 24.2% EV +51.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celaya face Tapachula in Mexico - Primera Premier on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celaya a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Tapachula 37%, so Celaya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Celaya and 1.4 for Tapachula (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celaya are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Tapachula. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.9%.