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Công An Nhân Dân vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh Prediction— Vietnam - V.League 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:15

Công An Nhân Dân

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 49.3% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.8%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-112.0%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 82.6% 1.21 -43.7%

Draw 24.2% 18.5% 5.40 +18.4%

Away win 29.3% 10.1% 9.90 +114.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.3% 1.58 -15.0%

Over 3.5 31.7% 41.2% 2.43 -23.0%

BTTS 55.3% 49.3% 2.03 +12.3%

Home O1.5 43.1% 76.3% 1.31 -43.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 19.2% 5.20 +72.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Công An Nhân Dân1.5

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN · PPG 2.38

HỒNG LĨNH HÀ TĨNH · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

51%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Công An Nhân Dân (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -43.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +18.4%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (A) 29.3%

ODDS 9.90 · IMPLIED 10.1% EV +114.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Công An Nhân Dân face Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh in Vietnam - V.League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Công An Nhân Dân a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 29%, so Công An Nhân Dân are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Công An Nhân Dân and 1.2 for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Công An Nhân Dân are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.17 for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +72.6%.

Công An Nhân Dân vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh Prediction— Vietnam - V.League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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