Today / Myanmar - National League / Thitsar Arman vs Hantharwady United

Thitsar Arman vs Hantharwady United Prediction— Myanmar - National League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:00

Thitsar Arman

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Hantharwady United

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.4%0-24.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.4%1-110.7%1-27.8%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.4%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Draw 26.1% 27.8% 3.60 -3.6%

Away win 29.6% 39.2% 2.55 -14.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Over 3.5 35.6% 41.2% 2.43 -13.5%

BTTS 55.9% 67.6% 1.48 -17.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 51.5% 1.94 -4.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.4% 2.11 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thitsar Arman1.7

Hantharwady United1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

THITSAR ARMAN · PPG 1.24

HANTHARWADY UNITED · PPG 1.33

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Thitsar Arman (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -2.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.6%

Hantharwady United (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thitsar Arman face Hantharwady United in Myanmar - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thitsar Arman a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Hantharwady United 30%, so Thitsar Arman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Thitsar Arman and 1.5 for Hantharwady United (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thitsar Arman are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.33 for Hantharwady United.