Today / Slovakia - 3. liga - West / MŠK Senec vs Rača

MŠK Senec vs Rača Prediction— Slovakia - 3. liga - West

West · Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

MŠK Senec

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

UPCOMING

Rača

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.3%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.2%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.6%3-17.1%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 59.9% 1.67 -9.2%

Draw 22.0% 26.3% 3.80 -9.8%

Away win 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Over 2.5 62.6% 60.6% 1.65 +3.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 39.1% 2.56 +2.9%

BTTS 60.0% 62.9% 1.59 -4.6%

Home O1.5 61.4% 59.9% 1.67 +2.5%

Away O1.5 32.7% 36.8% 2.72 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–2 5.0%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MŠK Senec2.1

Rača1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MŠK SENEC · PPG 1.73

RAČA · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MŠK Senec (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.8%

Rača (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

MŠK Senec face Rača in Slovakia - 3. liga - West on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MŠK Senec a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Rača 24%, so MŠK Senec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for MŠK Senec and 1.1 for Rača (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MŠK Senec are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.97 for Rača. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +18.0%.