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Salgueiros vs Machico Prediction— Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

Group B · Matchday 16 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 10:00

Salgueiros

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

UPCOMING

Machico

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-111.4%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.7%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 50.0% 2.00 -22.2%

Draw 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

Away win 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +1.3%

Over 2.5 38.8% 42.0% 2.38 -7.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -7.8%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 45.0% 2.22 -28.7%

Away O1.5 24.9% 29.2% 3.42 -8.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salgueiros1.2

Machico0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SALGUEIROS · PPG 1.31

MACHICO · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Salgueiros (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.2%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.4%

Machico (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salgueiros face Machico in Portugal - Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salgueiros a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Machico 29%, so Salgueiros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Salgueiros and 0.9 for Machico (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salgueiros are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.75 for Machico.