Today / Mexico - Liga Premier Serie A / Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca

Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga Premier Serie A

Apertura · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Mineros de Fresnillo

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Real Apodaca

PPG 1.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.8%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.3%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 29.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mineros de Fresnillo1.7

Real Apodaca1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MINEROS DE FRESNILLO · PPG 1.78

REAL APODACA · PPG 1.74

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mineros de Fresnillo (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Apodaca (A) 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mineros de Fresnillo face Real Apodaca in Mexico - Liga Premier Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mineros de Fresnillo a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Real Apodaca 29%, so Mineros de Fresnillo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mineros de Fresnillo and 1.2 for Real Apodaca (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mineros de Fresnillo are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.74 for Real Apodaca. This match finished 0-0.