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Widnau vs Collina d'Oro Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Group 3 · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Widnau

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Collina d'Oro

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.7%0-25.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.8%1-111.4%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 37.4% — — —

Over 2.5 57.6% — — —

Over 3.5 35.9% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 92%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 0–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widnau1.5

Collina d'Oro1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDNAU · PPG 1.11

COLLINA D'ORO · PPG 1.02

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Widnau (H) 37.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Collina d'Oro (A) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Widnau face Collina d'Oro in Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widnau a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Collina d'Oro 37%, so Widnau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Widnau and 1.5 for Collina d'Oro (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widnau are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.02 for Collina d'Oro. This match finished 0-1.