Today / Myanmar - National League / Dagon vs Hantharwady United

Dagon vs Hantharwady United Prediction— Myanmar - National League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Dagon

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hantharwady United

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.6%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.3%1-19.9%1-27.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.3%4+-22.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 100%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dagon1.8

Hantharwady United1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DAGON · PPG 1.77

HANTHARWADY UNITED · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dagon (H) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hantharwady United (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dagon face Hantharwady United in Myanmar - National League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dagon a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Hantharwady United 34%, so Dagon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dagon and 1.6 for Hantharwady United (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dagon are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.59 for Hantharwady United. This match finished 2-0.