Today / Slovenia - 3. SNL - East / Šmartno vs Videm

Šmartno vs Videm Prediction— Slovenia - 3. SNL - East

East · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Šmartno

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Videm

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.3%0-23.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.1%1-19.9%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 29.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.1% — — —

BTTS 60.7% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šmartno1.9

Videm1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠMARTNO · PPG 1.25

VIDEM · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Šmartno (H) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Videm (A) 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Šmartno face Videm in Slovenia - 3. SNL - East on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šmartno a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Videm 29%, so Šmartno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Šmartno and 1.4 for Videm (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šmartno are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.23 for Videm. This match finished 3-0.