Today / Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 / Winterthur II vs Mendrisio

Winterthur II vs Mendrisio Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Group 3 · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

Winterthur II

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mendrisio

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.7%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.3%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 29.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 34.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 92%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Winterthur II1.7

Mendrisio1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WINTERTHUR II · PPG 1.77

MENDRISIO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Winterthur II (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mendrisio (A) 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Winterthur II face Mendrisio in Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Winterthur II a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Mendrisio 29%, so Winterthur II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Winterthur II and 1.2 for Mendrisio (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Winterthur II are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.00 for Mendrisio. This match finished 2-1.