Today / Slovakia - 3. liga - East / Kežmarok vs Spartak Medzev

Kežmarok vs Spartak Medzev Prediction— Slovakia - 3. liga - East

East · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

Kežmarok

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spartak Medzev

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.5%0-24.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.6%1-19.5%1-28.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.8%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 43.2% — — —

Over 2.5 64.2% — — —

Over 3.5 43.2% — — —

BTTS 62.2% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 22%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kežmarok1.7

Spartak Medzev1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KEŽMAROK · PPG 1.35

SPARTAK MEDZEV · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kežmarok (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Spartak Medzev (A) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kežmarok face Spartak Medzev in Slovakia - 3. liga - East on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kežmarok a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Spartak Medzev 43%, so Spartak Medzev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kežmarok and 1.7 for Spartak Medzev (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kežmarok are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.30 for Spartak Medzev. This match finished 1-3.