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Frýdlant vs Šumperk Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie F

Group F · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Frýdlant

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Šumperk

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.2%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.4%1-111.1%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.3%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 34.7% 2.88 +2.5%

Draw 23.7% 26.3% 3.80 -6.0%

Away win 40.7% 50.0% 2.00 -18.6%

Over 2.5 59.8% 65.4% 1.53 -8.5%

Over 3.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

BTTS 60.8% 65.4% 1.53 -7.0%

Home O1.5 41.6% — — —

Away O1.5 43.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1 7.2%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frýdlant1.5

Šumperk1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FRÝDLANT · PPG 1.27

ŠUMPERK · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Frýdlant (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.0%

Šumperk (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frýdlant face Šumperk in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie F on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frýdlant a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Šumperk 41%, so Šumperk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Frýdlant and 1.5 for Šumperk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frýdlant are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.43 for Šumperk. This match finished 1-5.