Today / Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 / St. Gallen II vs Baden

St. Gallen II vs Baden Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Group 3 · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

St. Gallen II

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Baden

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-23.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.9%1-18.5%1-27.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.0%3-15.3%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.9%4+-23.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 34.9% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 92%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Gallen II1.9

Baden1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. GALLEN II · PPG 1.32

BADEN · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St. Gallen II (H) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baden (A) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Gallen II face Baden in Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Gallen II a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Baden 35%, so St. Gallen II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for St. Gallen II and 1.8 for Baden (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Gallen II are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.43 for Baden. This match finished 0-3.