Today / Hungary - NB III - Southwest / Paksi SE II vs MTK Budapest II

Paksi SE II vs MTK Budapest II Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Southwest

Southwest · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Paksi SE II

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

MTK Budapest II

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.0%0-25.9%0-33.9%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.6%1-19.1%1-29.0%1-35.9%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-16.9%2-26.8%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 48.7% — — —

Over 2.5 65.1% — — —

Over 3.5 43.2% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 1–3 5.9%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paksi SE II1.5

MTK Budapest II2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKSI SE II · PPG 1.14

MTK BUDAPEST II · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paksi SE II (H) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MTK Budapest II (A) 48.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paksi SE II face MTK Budapest II in Hungary - NB III - Southwest on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paksi SE II a 30% chance, the draw 22% and MTK Budapest II 49%, so MTK Budapest II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paksi SE II and 2.0 for MTK Budapest II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paksi SE II are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.90 for MTK Budapest II. This match finished 2-4.