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Legia Warszawa U19 vs Lech Poznań U19 Prediction— Poland - Central Youth League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 10:00

Legia Warszawa U19

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lech Poznań U19

PPG 1.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.3%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.3%1-16.2%1-24.4%1-32.1%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.4%3-17.6%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-110.0%4+-27.1%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 61.7% 1.62 -7.2%

Draw 19.7% 23.1% 4.33 -8.8%

Away win 22.9% 27.0% 3.70 -9.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 75.2% 1.33 -9.3%

Over 3.5 48.2% 56.2% 1.78 -14.2%

BTTS 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 57% / xG 2.7-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 3–1✓ 7.6%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warszawa U192.7

Lech Poznań U191.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSZAWA U19 · PPG 2.28

LECH POZNAŃ U19 · PPG 1.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warszawa U19 (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -7.2%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -8.8%

Lech Poznań U19 (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warszawa U19 face Lech Poznań U19 in Poland - Central Youth League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warszawa U19 a 57% chance, the draw 20% and Lech Poznań U19 23%, so Legia Warszawa U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Legia Warszawa U19 and 1.4 for Lech Poznań U19 (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warszawa U19 are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.95 for Lech Poznań U19. This match finished 3-1.