Today / Hungary - NB III - Southwest / Kaposvar vs Paksi SE II

Kaposvar vs Paksi SE II Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Southwest

Southwest · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 15:30

Kaposvar

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Paksi SE II

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.50 for Home, form 2.13 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.3%1-14.3%1-21.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.7%2-17.2%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-18.0%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-018.7%4+-115.4%4+-26.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 8.2% — — —

Over 2.5 70.0% — — —

Over 3.5 48.9% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 23.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.7%

#2 2–0 8.7%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1✓ 8.0%

#5 1–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaposvar3.3

Paksi SE II0.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPOSVAR · PPG 2.13

PAKSI SE II · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.50 for Home, form 2.13 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kaposvar (H) 76.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paksi SE II (A) 8.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaposvar face Paksi SE II in Hungary - NB III - Southwest on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaposvar a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Paksi SE II 8%, so Kaposvar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Kaposvar and 0.8 for Paksi SE II (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaposvar are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.89 for Paksi SE II. This match finished 3-1.