Today / Hungary - NB III - Southwest / Érdi VSE vs Pécsi MFC

Érdi VSE vs Pécsi MFC Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Southwest

Southwest · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 15:30

Érdi VSE

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pécsi MFC

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.0%0-27.6%0-34.8%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.6%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.4%2-16.4%2-26.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.4%3-12.7%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 51.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 37.1% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Érdi VSE1.3

Pécsi MFC1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ÉRDI VSE · PPG 1.88

PÉCSI MFC · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Érdi VSE (H) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pécsi MFC (A) 51.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Érdi VSE face Pécsi MFC in Hungary - NB III - Southwest on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Érdi VSE a 26% chance, the draw 22% and Pécsi MFC 52%, so Pécsi MFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Érdi VSE and 1.9 for Pécsi MFC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Érdi VSE are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.13 for Pécsi MFC. This match finished 1-2.