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MSV Duisburg U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 Prediction— Germany - U19 Bundesliga

Preliminary ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 09:00

MSV Duisburg U19

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

DWD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Borussia Dortmund U19

PPG 2.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.6%0-23.3%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.3%1-17.7%1-26.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.5%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.1%3-15.6%3-25.1%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.8%4+-24.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 65.1% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 59.6% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MSV Duisburg U192.1

Borussia Dortmund U191.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MSV DUISBURG U19 · PPG 1.77

BORUSSIA DORTMUND U19 · PPG 2.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

MSV Duisburg U19 (H) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Borussia Dortmund U19 (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MSV Duisburg U19 face Borussia Dortmund U19 in Germany - U19 Bundesliga on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MSV Duisburg U19 a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Borussia Dortmund U19 34%, so MSV Duisburg U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for MSV Duisburg U19 and 1.8 for Borussia Dortmund U19 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MSV Duisburg U19 are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 2.16 for Borussia Dortmund U19. This match finished 1-1.