Today / Germany - U19 Bundesliga / Ulm U19 vs Freiburg U19

Ulm U19 vs Freiburg U19 Prediction— Germany - U19 Bundesliga

Preliminary ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 09:00

Ulm U19

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiburg U19

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.1%0-25.3%0-33.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.1%1-18.4%1-28.6%1-35.9%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-27.0%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.8%3-13.7%3-23.8%3-32.6%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 45.4% — — —

Over 2.5 65.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 55.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2✓ 8.6%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulm U191.6

Freiburg U192.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ULM U19 · PPG 1.37

FREIBURG U19 · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulm U19 (H) 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Freiburg U19 (A) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulm U19 face Freiburg U19 in Germany - U19 Bundesliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulm U19 a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Freiburg U19 45%, so Freiburg U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ulm U19 and 2.1 for Freiburg U19 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulm U19 are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.80 for Freiburg U19. This match finished 1-2.