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Bayern München U19 vs Ingolstadt U19 Prediction— Germany - U19 Bundesliga

Preliminary ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 09:00

Bayern München U19

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ingolstadt U19

PPG 2.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.3%0-22.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-02.5%1-15.4%1-25.9%1-34.2%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.0%2-16.5%2-27.0%2-35.1%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.4%3-15.2%3-25.6%3-34.0%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.5%4+-26.0%4+-34.3%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 34.0% — — —

Over 2.5 71.8% — — —

Over 3.5 51.6% — — —

BTTS 69.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 57.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1 6.5%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 3–2 5.6%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern München U192.4

Ingolstadt U192.2

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MÜNCHEN U19 · PPG 1.94

INGOLSTADT U19 · PPG 2.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bayern München U19 (H) 45.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ingolstadt U19 (A) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern München U19 face Ingolstadt U19 in Germany - U19 Bundesliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern München U19 a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Ingolstadt U19 34%, so Bayern München U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Bayern München U19 and 2.2 for Ingolstadt U19 (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern München U19 are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 2.16 for Ingolstadt U19. This match finished 3-1.