Today / Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie B / Karlovy Vary vs Újezd Praha 4

Karlovy Vary vs Újezd Praha 4 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie B

Group B · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Karlovy Vary

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Újezd Praha 4

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.6%0-22.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-02.7%1-15.9%1-26.3%1-34.6%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.2%2-35.1%2-4+4.6%3 3-02.3%3-15.0%3-25.4%3-33.9%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.8%4+-25.2%4+-33.7%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 37.8% — — —

Over 2.5 71.8% — — —

Over 3.5 48.3% — — —

BTTS 69.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 57.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlovy Vary2.3

Újezd Praha 42.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLOVY VARY · PPG 1.87

ÚJEZD PRAHA 4 · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karlovy Vary (H) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Újezd Praha 4 (A) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlovy Vary face Újezd Praha 4 in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlovy Vary a 41% chance, the draw 21% and Újezd Praha 4 38%, so Karlovy Vary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Karlovy Vary and 2.2 for Újezd Praha 4 (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlovy Vary are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.47 for Újezd Praha 4. This match finished 4-1.