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Collina d'Oro vs Mendrisio Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Group 3 · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Collina d'Oro

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDW ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Mendrisio

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.8%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 28.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 37.8% — — —

Away O1.5 33.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 92%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Collina d'Oro1.4

Mendrisio1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COLLINA D'ORO · PPG 1.43

MENDRISIO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Collina d'Oro (H) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mendrisio (A) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Collina d'Oro face Mendrisio in Switzerland - 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Collina d'Oro a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Mendrisio 29%, so Collina d'Oro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Collina d'Oro and 1.1 for Mendrisio (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Collina d'Oro are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Mendrisio. This match finished 1-1.