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Baník Prievidza vs Častkovce Prediction— Slovakia - 3. liga - West

West · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:30

Baník Prievidza

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Častkovce

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.3%1-17.9%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.5%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-17.8%4+-24.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 4.9%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baník Prievidza2.4

Častkovce1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BANÍK PRIEVIDZA · PPG 1.67

ČASTKOVCE · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baník Prievidza (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Častkovce (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Baník Prievidza face Častkovce in Slovakia - 3. liga - West on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baník Prievidza a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Častkovce 24%, so Baník Prievidza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Baník Prievidza and 1.2 for Častkovce (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baník Prievidza are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.78 for Častkovce. This match finished 4-2.