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Real Brasília U20 vs Brasiliense U20 Prediction— Brazil - Brasiliense U20

Semi-finals ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:30

Real Brasília U20

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brasiliense U20

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.4%0-24.9%0-33.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.0%1-19.1%1-28.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.7%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.4%3-14.4%3-24.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 36.4% 2.75 -2.9%

Draw 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

Away win 42.1% 48.8% 2.05 -13.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 66.7% 1.50 +0.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 45.2% 2.21 -5.0%

BTTS 63.3% 70.4% 1.42 -10.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 48.3% 2.07 +1.8%

Away O1.5 51.8% 57.5% 1.74 -9.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Brasília U201.7

Brasiliense U201.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BRASÍLIA U20 · PPG 2.50

BRASILIENSE U20 · PPG 2.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Brasília U20 (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Brasiliense U20 (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Brasília U20 face Brasiliense U20 in Brazil - Brasiliense U20 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Brasília U20 a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Brasiliense U20 42%, so Brasiliense U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Brasília U20 and 1.8 for Brasiliense U20 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Brasília U20 are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.67 for Brasiliense U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.8%.