Today / Brazil - Baiano - 2 / SSA vs Fluminense De Feira

SSA vs Fluminense De Feira Prediction— Brazil - Baiano - 2

Final ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

SSA

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fluminense De Feira

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-111.3%0-27.8%0-33.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.2%2-17.1%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 35.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSA1.1

Fluminense De Feira1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SSA · PPG 3.00

FLUMINENSE DE FEIRA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SSA (H) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fluminense De Feira (A) 35.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSA face Fluminense De Feira in Brazil - Baiano - 2 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSA a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Fluminense De Feira 36%, so SSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for SSA and 1.4 for Fluminense De Feira (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSA are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.20 for Fluminense De Feira.